My original title for this post was “Why Trump Will Win.”
Since then, nearly every major media outlet in the world says that a Trump win is a statistical impossibility.
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| October 17th prediction from fivethirtyeight.com |
We’ll see. I’ve toned down my prediction for the moment.
Keep in mind that these polls have changed drastically over time:
There’s still another debate, and several weeks before the actual day.
As far back as July 2015, I mused on Facebook: “Wow, Trump really knows how to play the social media game. I feel like he might win based on that alone.”
I think it’s easy for upper-middle class, college-educated folks to dismiss the idea of a Trump win, but bear in mind: Clinton is the status quo.
A lot of people do not want the status quo. A lot of people are pissed off at the status quo.
Nearly every recent election has been won on the promise of significant change.
For better or worse, Trump promises change.
Clinton offers more of the same.
Compare their slogans:
They’re both pretty weak, but Trump’s implies major change, whereas Clinton’s doesn’t.
The biggest factor though, in my opinion, is how the campaigns handle social media.
Clinton’s campaign focuses more on facts and logic.
Trump’s campaign throws logic out the window, and focuses on igniting emotional responses.
My gut, emotional response to this is a feeling that it might be a superior tactic.
For those who haven’t seen them, he’s a brief sampling from Trump’s social media army:
So, everyone get out their popcorn for the next 3 weeks to enjoy:
- Weirder and crazier-sounding rhetoric from Donald
- More questionable emails and scandals from Hilary
- Increasing “doomsday” scenarios from both sides about what will happen if the “evil” side wins
- Division of Americans on a scale probably not seen since the Civil War
This is definitely shaping up to be one of the weirdest American elections in recent history.